Gaan robots onze banen vernietigen? Ja. Maar wat ervoor in de plaats komt, is veel beter dan wat er was.
Credit Suisse analyst Eugene Klerk and his team published a note recently on the types of jobs most likely to be “disrupted” by new technology. Most people regard “disrupted” as a euphemism for “destroyed.” Klerk cites a 2013 study that found 47% of jobs — mostly in sales, services, and admin — are at risk of being destroyed by new technology or robots.
Studies like these usually generate headlines like “Robots are putting people out to pasture” (the Mail), “After the robot revolution, these may be the only jobs left for human beings” (The Telegraph), and “Robots will steal your job” (er, Business Insider).
I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.
That’s because they’re likely to create a lot of new, more interesting jobs than the ones they’re destroying. Chris Dixon, of the Silicon Valley VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, recently published this chart which showed all the typographer jobs that were “destroyed” by publishing software:
If you like designing pages, then you want to be alive now — plenty of jobs! — and not in 1984.
Here is an even better one. It shows how the film camera industry was destroyed by the digital camera industry, which was in turn destroyed by the smartphone industry. These data are of sales revenues, not jobs, but it’s obvious that there are more people employed today making phones than there ever were making cameras: