Nog even, en een euro is minder waard dan een dollar

Foto Reuters

Als je nog op vakantie wil naar de VS, moet je snel zijn: de euro zakt steeds meer in, en binnenkort is er waarschijnlijk ‘pariteit’ met de dollar: 1 euro voor 1 dollar. Dat is sinds de invoering van de euro niet meer voorgekomen.

The euro slumped to yet another new in early trading Wednesday, tumbling below $1.06 for the first time in more than 12 years.

As of 1:15 p.m GMT (9:15 a.m ET) after a fairly insubstantial speech from ECB President Mario Draghi, the euro is down another 0.97% to $1.0578.

The currency is tumbling against the strong dollar, down 23% from the near-$1.40 levels it reached this time last year, and nearly 12% from the start of 2015 alone. It’s lost about five cents in dollar value in just a week - it’s rare for an advanced economy’s currency to drop that quickly in a short period.

The euro is now back at the value it was in January 2003.

Many analysts had been predicting that the euro would sink to reach parity with the dollar once again by the end of 2016. But at least one investment bank, Deutsche Bank, is fast-forwarding that projection.

Deutsche’s European researchers now expect parity by the end of this year, and for the euro to drop to $0.85 by 2017: That’s as low as the currency has ever been against the dollar.

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In fact, according to Rabobank’s analysts, the euro is “on course for its biggest ever quarterly decline” right now.

The strengthening dollar and weakening euro are being prodded along by a pretty fundamental divergence between the two currencies’ central banks. The Fed is hovering on the edge of raising interest rates, which would usually drive up returns for people investing in dollars, increasing the demand for the currency and driving up its value against others.

The European Central Bank, on the other hand, is now running into a QE programme that should last until at least 2016, which should continue to drive down interest rates and weaken the euro, which should have the exact opposite effect.

So don’t expect this trend to let up any time soon.

BI21