De dreiging van een dubbele dip is zorgelijk, maar het kan erger

on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2011. (AP Photo/Richard Drew) Wanhoop op de beursvloer in New York. Foto AP / Richard Drew

We zouden ons niet alleen zorgen moeten maken over de wereldwijde schuldencrisis en de gevreesde dubbele dip, schrijft het Amerikaanse blad Foreign Policy. Het kan namelijk altijd erger.

Auteur David J. Rothkopf geeft tien manieren die de wereld nog meer angst zouden aanjagen en vertelt waarom Obama zou moeten overwegen zich niet herkiesbaar te stellen.

  1. De Europese schuldencrisis kan zich verdiepen

    “The European Central Bank’s interventions to prop up Spain and Italy could prove inadequate. EU leaders will continue to avoid real structural reform. European banks, now showing a reluctance to lend (akin to their mood immediately after the collapse of Lehman Brothers) could themselves teeter, burdened by the prospects of sovereign debt defaults and a global slow down. [...]“

  2. Spanningen verhevigen

    “Europe’s economic problems could beget deepening social tensions. Unrest like that seen in the United Kingdom could become more commonplace. With jobs drying up, anti-immigrant violence could grow. [...]“

  3. VS recessie regressie

    “The United States could officially enter recession. Reduced tax revenues will be one painful consequence of the slow down. Politicians will struggle to reduce debt but find it hard to do so in the near term. The problem will burgeon. Small- and medium-sized communities will default. [...]“

  4. Wereldwijde besmetting

    “We could enter a global recession. Downturns in the United States and the European Union could feed off of one another and the fragile Japanese economy would almost certainly sink as a result. Credit tightness and political indecisiveness will deepen the gloom.”

  5. Inflatie treft de BRIC-landen

    “While emerging markets like China and Brazil might see inflation worries ebb due to the global recession and falling demand for high-priced commodities … they might not. Their currencies could strengthen as established ones falter, making exports more costly at just the wrong moment. [...]“

  6. Uitbarsting Midden Oosten

    “Tensions in the Middle East could grow. Palestine’s push for statehood might be followed by massive displays of civic unrest. An Israeli government burdened with economic problems of its own and a little arthritic when it comes to its willingness to show flexibility with its near-neighbors will move too slowly. States elsewhere in the region grappling with their own problems -- a more anti-Israel Egypt, Syria, Iran, and others -- will fan the flames. [...]“

  7. Intercontinentale krachtmeting

    “The government in Pakistan could totter or be decapitated thus heightening fears of even more pronounced Islamist influence and of growing tension with India. Indian markets fall. The Indian government is unable to pursue needed economic reforms. Social unrest might be seen throughout the sub-continent.”

  8. Nog een Eyjafjallajokull

    “One or more exogenous events of the type that regularly occur without warning -- a terror attack, an earthquake, a tsunami, a devastating hurricane or typhoon, the eruption of an Icelandic volcano -- could slam a major economy weakening the global situation further.”

  9. Verwacht het onverwachte

    “An unexpected or unexpectedly intense conflict could erupt in the Russian near abroad, in Central Asia, in Turkey, in Africa, or in the Middle East creating even more uncertainty. With economically unsteady and politically hesitant leadership in the world’s most important powers growing instability fueled by rogue opportunists seems increasingly likely.”

  10. Alles bij elkaar genomen

    “Some combination of the above could then turn the global recession plus related banking, derivatives and stock-market crises into a depression. It is undeniable that many of the above developments are not highly likely. But what is striking is just how plausible most of them are. These are the kind of medium-to-low probability outcomes with significant consequences that planners must take into account.  It is also easy to see how further inaction, half-steps, and wrong steps by leaders could make these and other grim turns much more likely. [...]“

En waarom zou Obama zich moeten terugtrekken uit de presidentsrace?

Rothkopf:

“My fantasy is that recognizing this, President Obama would do as he once promised he would do, set personal ambition aside and announce he is not running for re-election. Instead, he would say that he wanted to shrug off the straight jacket of political considerations and focus exclusively on finding bi-partisan solutions to America’s problems. Perhaps he would make a bold gesture, like appointing Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson co-secretaries of the Treasury or, at least, give both economic leadership roles on his team. Others in the Democratic Party can focus on 2012 and beyond. There are many qualified to lead. [...]“