Dutch prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende was long in the running to become the first permanent president of the European Council. The Dutch coalition parties took pride in the fact he was being considered, but worried whether the cabinet would survive his premature departure.

Part of the reason the European top job appointments are made behind closed doors is that high profile candidates lose face when they are not chosen. Now that Balkenende has been sidelined in favour of his southern neighbour Herman Van Rompuy, the question is if he has lost authority back at home.

"You can only be disappointed if you don't get something you want," Balkenende said Thursday after Van Rompuy was crowned, adding he will "passionately" focus on his work as prime minister of the Netherlands.

Balkenende, who has been leading the Netherlands since 2002, had always maintained he was not a candidate for the EU council chairmanship. "I could not control the debate in the media," he said Thursday. "I was a little surprised about the discourse about my person."

But even if he was never an official candidate, Dutch officials were actively lobbying for him and bookies ranked him high on the list of eligible candidates. His chances looked excellent just two weeks ago, and even a few hours before the Van Rompuy announcement, he still seemed to be in the race. This led to speculations about what the departure would mean for the Dutch political reality.

Leadership change

For his own Christian democrat party CDA, his move to Brussels could have made a leadership change easier. Foreign minister Maxime Verhagen, who has been waiting in the wings, could have taken over without a damaging succesion battle. But as Balkenende’s chances diminished, fellow party members were quick to point out how undisputed his leadership in the CDA is, and how much he means to the party.

Coalition partners Labour and the orthodox Christian party ChristenUnie took an ambiguous position. In public, Labour leader and finance minister Wouter Bos called on Balkenende to stay in the Netherlands. The departure of the prime minister could lead to turmoil and possibly early elections; an undesirable scenario for the social-democratic party, which has never been lower in the polls. At the same time, some Labour parliamentarians wouldn't have been sad to see him go. They were hoping for a more persuasive kingpin to lead the government.

The ChristenUnie too pleaded for Balkenende not to leave for Brussels, as this could have seriously and irreparably disrupted the balance of power in the three-party coalition government. One ChristenUnie lawmaker, who asked not to be named, said: "It could be that Balkenende is the key in the precarious balance between the three parties in cabinet." But if the Catholic Verhagen were to replace the Calvinist Balkenende, this could draw more protestant voters to the ChristenUnie.

Some said "anyone but Balkenende" would "obviously" be better for the current cabinet. Balkenende is not known as a charismatic leader or a great public speaker. His performance in defending the government budget in September especially highlighted his short comings. "I have rarely seem anyone defend policies with less inspiration, while inspiration is exactly what we need right now," Labour member of parliament Diederik Samson said at the time.

Friction between the two major ruling parties

The prime minister had good reasons to publicly deny any suggestion that he might have been be a candidate for the permanent presidency of the European Council. In politics, the adage is: anyone who says he wants to leave, is already gone. But does not saying it out loud, even though everyone is aware of the aspirations, help one escape this political rule?

Most opposition parties, were quick say Balkenende is now a powerless leader and called for general elections. But coalition parties publicly stated that they were happy the prime minister was staying in the Netherlands.

It is hard to say if Balkenende wish to move to Brussel will have repercussions for internal relationships within the ruling coalition. Labour has never had warm feelings about the prime minister’s leadership, and the love has cooled even more in the last months. A series of incidents, like Balkenende underperforming in the budget debate, his personal meddling in the row over the Westerschelde, and his visible lack of control over Verhagen voicing his desire to keep troops in Afghanistan, have led to friction between the two major ruling parties. But parlementarians for the Labour party emphasise Balkenende’s flirt with a new job does not have a negative impact on the relationship.

A lot on his plate

CDA itself does not fear any ramifications from Balkenende's little fling with Europe. Party members said he deserved the job, but it would be better for the party if he stayed. "The Netherlands needs politicians like Balkenende more than ever," said CDA lawmaker Jan Schinkelshoek, who recently described him as "one of the few politicians who I would buy a used car from."

The Dutch political reality is that Balkenende has a lot on his plate now. In January a special committee will present the results of an investigation into the reasons behind the Dutch support for the American invasion in Iraq. The prime minister will have to campaign in the local elections in March. And, most importantly, he will have to steer his country and its welfare state through the economic crisis.

The list leaves little room for errors, so Balkenende will have to quickly recover from his disappointment.