Now Tony Blair, former prime minister of the UK, has more or less been discounted and it has informally been agreed that the first president of the European Union will be a Christian Democrats, the spotlight has fallen on other candidates: Belgian premier Herman Van Rompuy, Luxemburg's Jean-Claude Juncker and Jan Peter Balkenende have risen up the list of those most mentioned.

The Czech constitutional court on Tuesday approved the EU reform treaty. So government leaders of the 27 EU member states will probably decide at an extra European summit in the next weeks. Between now and then there is plenty of time for Balkenende to crash and burn, a worried Dutch official said last week in the corridors of power.

But Balkenende is still in contention. And not just because other European leaders are thinking of him. He himself would love the job. Two years ago personnel in Balkenende's office had already noticed he was interested in a job in Brussels.

What does the president do? The president of the European Council of Ministers, for which the name of Balkenende is circulating, is a new function created by the Lisbon Treaty. The treaty, which is expected to come into force on January 1, will give the European Union a clearer and more democratic management structure. At the moment the presidency rotates every six months between the 27 member states. The government leader of the country holding the chairmanship is president of the EU for the six months. The new arrangement gives the European Council, the decision-making body of government leaders, a separate and permanent president. This president is chosen by majority vote by government leaders for a period of two-and-a-half years. This period can be extended once.

The longer he has been prime minister, the more Balkenende has enjoyed appearing on the international stage. It is an opportunity to leave national politics for a while and talk with world leaders about issues that really count. Within the EU he sees himself more as premier of the smallest of the large countries than the largest of the small countries. He regards the Netherlands' invitations to the meetings of the most important economies, the G20, as confirmation of this.

'More respected in Europe'

Where he can take part, he takes part. "He is not at all impressed by important people," said a Dutch insider who has seen Balkenende earn respect during European meetings. "He's much more respected in Europe than at home."

The 'international' Balkenende is illustrated by the way in which he reported to Dutch parliament earlier this year on his role in breaking the deadlock on the appointment of the new secretary-general of Nato, after the Turkish prime minister Erdogan had voiced objections against Anders Fog Rasmussen, prime minister of Denmark. Balkenende: "I helped to remove the misunderstandings of president Gül and Turkey to make the appointment of Rasmussen possible. And during the G20 top in London, I also spoke about this with prime minister Erdogan, together with president Obama, chancellor Merkel and prime minister Zapatero."

Bio Balkenende Jan Peter Balkenende was born on May 7, 1956 in Kapelle, the son of a Calvinist director of a trading company and a teacher. He began his career at the Free University in Amsterdam, where he studied history and law and was appointed a part-time professor in 1993. Meanwhile he developed in to a party ideologist for the Christian democrat party CDA. He entered parliament in 1998 and became the party's spokesperson on financial issues. In October 2001 he, unexpectedly, succeeded the overturned party leader Jaap de Hoop Scheffer - the future Nato secretary general. He won the 2002 elections, a week after the assassination of populist politician Pim Fortuyn, and has been the Netherlands' prime minister since. He currently leads his fourth coalition government - with Labour party PvdA and orthodox Christian ChristenUnie - as his three prior governments came apart prematurely. Balkenende is married to Bianca Hoogendijk and has one daughter, Amelie.

What makes him a "good candidate" for president of the EU, as the French Christian Democrat party leader in the European parliament, Joseph Daul, called him? And what can Europe expect from him? As the second longest serving government leader - only the Luxembourger Juncker has served longer - he brings a great deal of experience. That Balkenende comes from a small country is also an advantage, making him no threat to the other countries. The Netherlands is a full member of the union: the euro has been adopted and its participation in the Schengen treaty means its borders are open. As a person, Balkenende does not have a distinct personality which is an advantage for someone who mainly has to act as an effective chairman.

During a press conference in Brussels on Friday, the German chancellor Angela Merkel was asked about her Dutch colleague. "I can tell you that Jan Peter Balkenende speaks good German," she said. The prime minister's English is also reasonable, but his knowledge of French is limited. Talks with the French are usually conducted in English or with the help of an interpreter.

Blistering attack on Chirac and Schröder

In any case, being appointed has little to do with recognition. The British TV broadcaster BBC World continually called Balkenende the prime minister of Denmark last week.

Balkenende fits the intention which is about serviceability - more a chairman than a president of Europe. Not to be confused with flexibility, because then Balkenende is the wrong man for the job, as EU leaders have discovered several times over the past seven years.

The appearance of the newly-elected prime minister Balkenende in the European Council in October 2002 is legendary. To the surprise of everyone there, the newcomer launched a blistering attack on French president Jacques Chirac and German chancellor Gerhard Schröder. They had a mutual agreement on extra agricultural subsidies and wanted to impose it on the other countries. Unacceptable, said Balkenende, who threatened a veto. Following some massaging by the Danish chairman, a compromise was eventually reached.

A number of agenda points later, Balkenende balked again. This time on the conditions under which countries could become members of the union. Balkenende thought these were too freely formulated. He again stood his ground. After three adjournments, his three proposed amendments were finally accepted. According to the oral tradition in Brussels, Balkenende's debut made such an impression on his 'opponent' Chirac that the French president complimented him afterwards on the way in which he had played the game.

Europe as a business project

It was certainly clear that the then 15 countries of the union were dealing with a different Netherlands. Like a distant echo of the British premier Margaret Thatcher, Balkenende also demanded 'his money back'. The Netherlands paid far too much, was his constant message. This led in 2005, when the European budget was fixed, to another vicious battle between Balkenende and a number of other government leaders. The 600 million euro reduction the Netherlands received was not enough, he declared. Together with his British colleague Tony Blair, Balkenende blocked the agreement, which brought the reproach "egotistic" from Chirac. Six months later agreement was reached. The Netherlands would pay one billion euros less to the EU from 2007. "An end has come to the exorbitant position of the Netherlands as net contributor," said Balkenende.

Belgian candidate While all the talk in the Netherlands is about whether or not Balkenende will leave for Brussels, Belgians are convinced their prime minister Herman Van Rompuy is the favourite for the job. French press agency AFP on Monday quoted an unidentified diplomat as saying all 27 government leaders agreed on Van Rompuy. The Christian Democrat is said to have been approached by Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, but the question is how the Britons feel about an EU president from a country that is in favour of a more 'federalist' union. Van Rompuy became prime minister of Belgium after a long political crisis last year . "He who can hold Belgium together makes an impression in Europe," several TV commentators said.

More than his predecessors Wim Kok and Ruud Lubbers, Balkenende considers Europe as a business project in which the Netherlands' national interest plays an important role. Born after world war two, he is less involved with the European ideal of 'no more war' than Kok and Lubbers, both born before the war. Balkenende certainly believes in Europe, but is at some distance from the federal ideal avowed by countries like Belgium.

He was also criticised for his coolness elsewhere in Europe when the debate about the European Constitution broke out in the Netherlands as a result of the 2005 referendum. The Luxembourg prime minister Juncker said Balkenende missed "the courage to defend the European Union against public opinion". Guy Verhofstadt, then Belgian premier, went further during a European top in 2007, accusing Balkenende of " fleecing the European idea".

Friends in London and Berlin

Balkenende's friends are elsewhere in Europe. In London, when it comes to restraining the European budget and protecting the free market. But in particular in Germany since the Christian Democrat Angela Merkel was elected chancellor. "His first meeting with her was a relief after her predecessor Gerhard Schröder, with whom he had nothing in common," according to an insider. There is a "real connection" between Merkel and Balkenende, it is said. So it will be Merkel's choice which will determine Balkenende's chances of becoming the first president of Europe. And Merkel's final choice will be closely in tune with that of the French president Nicholas Sarkozy.

But will Merkel be able to vote for Balkenende? The prime minister continues to insist he is not a candidate. "Not yet," says the Brussels circle.